Most investor customers incorrectly believe that I possess the ability to properly pick the right company to buy or sell and then with my crystal ball can predict when I should buy or sell it. I do not possess that ability. As I explained above in Key Element #1, neither does any other advisor or mutual fund management company. Yet, almost as if other advisors "really" believe they can, they go on the air with their advertising dollar and tell the world that they do possess this skill. Have you ever watched CNBC Market Watch when the show's host interviews an investment advisor who will actually tell the viewer which companies are on their "watch list?" On another show hosted by Crammer, it was shown that if you followed all of his recommendations you would have "under performed" the market.
It is no wonder to me why you might also believe this skill is obtainable by investment advisors because it is the only skill that is advertised. As you know, most advertising is hyped up to get you to buy their product or service.
In an academic study done by Gary Brinson in 1986 and repeated in 1991 he and his colleagues empirically proved that more than 90 percent of the variability in a typical plan sponsor's performance over time is the result of asset allocation policy.1 The study also showed during this time that stock picking and market timing only accounted for explaining 4 percent of the return in these pension portfolios (during the period of study in the 1986 report stock picking and market timing caused a loss in the portfolios they studied).
In my model, the corner stone that is reliable to explain 90 percent of the time "why" it works, is asset allocation. It is so important that I titled the model using the words "building blocks" after this important truth.
1 Brinson, Gary P., L. Randolf Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower. 1986. "Determinants of Portfolio Performance. " Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 42, no. 4 (July/August):39-48.
Brinson, Gary P., Brian D. Singer, and Gilbert L. Beebower. 1991. "Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update." Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 47, no. 3(May/June):40-48. |